Key finding
Large week-to-week spikes in training load are consistently associated with elevated injury risk in team-sport athletes.
Large week-to-week spikes in training load are consistently associated with elevated injury risk in team-sport athletes. The ratio of acute load to chronic load provides a simple screening signal.
The relationship is not a prohibition on hard training; it is an argument for progression. Athletes with high chronic loads tolerate high weeks well, while sudden spikes are the danger.
In practice: build workload gradually, monitor the weekly spike, and treat unexplained load jumps as a planning error rather than a badge of commitment.
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